There is growing concern that waning vaccine protection could be putting older people at risk. Data from Israel suggest that people over 65 who got their shots last January are losing their shield. Just a few months ago Israel was the envy of the world. Rapid vaccine deployment meant COVID cases dropped like a rock.
People assumed that the pandemic was over in Israel. They went shopping indoors, attended concerts and exercised at gyms. People stopped wearing masks and practicing social distance. The assumption was that if you were vaccinated you could not catch COVID. And even if you did somehow come down with the coronavirus, you would not get sick or end up in the hospital. If that sounds familiar, we were hearing much the same message here in the US.
Waning Vaccine Protection in Israel:
That was then. Now COVID cases are rising rapidly in Israel. Although the shots were initially highly protective, more recent data show they are about 55% effective against serious COVID infections. The Delta variant is on the rampage. Early adopters of vaccination may be the first to experience waning vaccine protection.
Vaccinated Israelis are starting to get quite sick. Deaths from COVID are on the rise. During June there were a number of days when there were no deaths from Sars-Cov-2. At last count in August there have been 230 Israeli deaths from COVID-19. That will rise as Delta grabs a firmer foothold.
Over the last couple of weeks COVID cases have doubled in Israel. There’s talk of a new lockdown. The government is ramping up its booster shot program. At least a million older people have received a third shot of the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine. It’s too soon to tell if it is making a difference. There is a hint, however, that in this booster-vaccinated population cases are starting to fall once again.
What’s Happening in the US? Waning Vaccine Protection is A Reality:
The data are preliminary, but Dr. Francis Collins, Director of the National Institutes of Health, reports that the US is beginning to detect similar trends.
During an interview on the Hugh Hewitt show (Aug. 17, 2021) Dr. Collins stated:
“When you look at the Israeli data, I’m looking at it right now, because they are a little bit ahead of us in terms of when Delta hit them really hard. It’s a combination of Delta being a particularly nasty variant that’s very contagious, and the fact that unsurprisingly, vaccine protection does gradually wane over time. And so in the Israeli data, the people who got immunized in January are the ones that are now having more breakthrough cases.”
Dr. Collins also notes that in the US, some vaccinated people are also requiring hospitalization because of COVID. We have already written about Why Vaccines May Not Protect You Against Delta COVID at this link.
The CDC’s director, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, said this week that the Israeli experience suggests that there is:
“increased risk of severe disease amongst those vaccinated early.”
The Wall Street Journal (Aug. 18, 2021) reports that:
“The booster shot reduced the risk of infection in the 60-plus age group by 86% and against severe infection by 92%, according to an observational study by Israel’s second largest healthcare provider, Maccabi Health Services, released Wednesday.”
The Clock Is Ticking on Waning Vaccine Protection:
I was an early vaccine adopter. I received my first Pfizer/BioNTech shot on January 12, 2021. That means I almost assuredly have waning vaccine protection. Millions more are heading in the same direction. I have seen predictions that at least 10 to 20% of us will end up with severe disease if we catch the Delta variant. And that could change for the worse over the next month.
There are not enough data to guarantee that a booster shot will prevent us from catching COVID. But the preliminary Israeli data are encouraging. Will I get a third shot when it becomes available in September? Absolutely.
Some Good News:
I remain optimistic. I have been tracking data from India closely. As you may remember, Delta hit India very hard in April and May. At the peak, India was experiencing 400,000 cases in a single day. (For comparison, the US reported around 162,000 cases on August 18, 2021.)
But here is the good news. Cases in India have dropped off dramatically in the last two months. The last I checked, daily cases were around 33,000. Brazil was also hammered by the coronavirus. But it too is reporting a significant decline in cases. Indonesia is also observing a rapid reduction.
Sadly, many other countries are still in bad shape. That includes Japan, Iran, Mexico, Philippines, Cuba and Vietnam, to name just a few. We are not over this pandemic.
What to Do About Waning Vaccine Protection?
The feds are recommending booster shots for health care providers and older people who were vaccinated in December and January. Those with compromised immune systems should also be first in line. By mid-September I suspect that the early adopters like me will be eligible for booster shots.
No one knows what the future will hold. Will there be a new variant that escapes vaccine protection entirely? We certainly hope not. But there are no guarantees with this virus. We keep hoping for a highly effective antiviral agent that becomes readily available. Until that day arrives, however, we urge people to be prudent and stay safe.
