Last year’s flu season is a distant memory. But in a few months the flu will be back, and no one knows how bad it will be.
The experts overreacted last year because influenza struck early. Public health officials exhorted Americans to get their flu shots, even though they knew that the vaccine was not a good match for the dominant strain of influenza.
People took the message to heart. Lines stretched around the block at many clinics. Some communities even ran out of vaccine. How well did this strategy work to ward off the flu?
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have now analyzed the results from last winter. The vaccination worked about half the time in healthy adults. It was less effective in the very people who needed protection most, preventing flu in only 38 percent of those with chronic illness.
We hope the vaccine for the coming flu season will be a better match so it will be more effective. Unfortunately, we’re not off to a good start. One manufacturer has had to hold shipment of 50 million doses to find out why some batches of its influenza vaccine are tainted. Since Chiron Corp. supplies half the country’s flu shots, this could slow public health efforts to protect vulnerable populations.
Children with asthma are included in that category. Parents are urged to get them vaccinated early to prevent infection, which can trigger asthma attacks. But a recent study compared 400 children who received an influenza vaccination with 400 who did not get a flu shot. The scientists found that asthmatic children who were vaccinated had a significantly increased risk of asthma flare-ups during the winter (Arch. Dis. in Childhood August, 2004).
Although these data are disturbing, no one is ready to discourage immunization for these susceptible children. More research is certainly needed to clarify benefits and risks for those who need protection most.
In the meantime, there are effective medications that can be prescribed to prevent or treat influenza. Drugs such as amantadine, Flumadine and Tamiflu need to be taken within the first day or two of symptoms to shorten the time a patient suffers fever, coughing or aches and pains.
The big fear is that someday a superflu will develop resistance to these antiviral medicines. Public health experts worry that such a bug might burst onto the scene so fast that there would not be enough time to prepare adequate vaccine. It can take up to eight months to determine the right virus and produce millions of doses.
The CDC is worried that a new flu pandemic could be as disruptive as the 1918 outbreak. Twenty million people around the world died, more than had been killed in the brutal fighting of World War I.
The government might hoard supplies of antiviral drugs for use by police, firefighters and health professionals. It might make sense for some families to have their own stockpile ahead of time. That way, if the vaccine is unavailable, vulnerable members can still be protected.
Ask your doctor whether such a strategy would be appropriate for you, and don’t wait until the last minute to get your flu shot or fill your prescription.