COVID-19 variants continue to proliferate. We have gone from Alpha and Delta to Omicron, and though we haven’t changed letters in the Greek alphabet, we’ve added numbers. The latest Omicron variants are more contagious than prior versions of the virus. BA.4 and BA.5 are taking over from BA.2–even from BA.2.12.1. That particular variant accounted for 20 percent of COVID-19 cases in New York City in late April and early May, 2022 (MedRxiv, May 26, 2022).
The evolution of new Omicron variants explains why people who have been vaccinated and boosted are still becoming infected. Experts estimate that the average daily infection rate currently is over 100,000 cases, though at-home testing makes it harder to get accurate numbers. Hospitalizations and deaths, however, are tracked more closely. The US is continuing to experience hundreds of deaths every day.
Early in the pandemic, the doubling time for COVID-19 was reported between 5 to 7 days. New York City went from a daily positivity rate of 3.9% on December 9, 2021 to 7.8% three days later. Total cases that week were the highest for the entire pandemic up until then. It looks like the latest Omicron variants are spreading even faster.
What We Know About the Omicron Variants:
Initial reports from South Africa suggested that this form of COVID-19 is far more contagious, but possibly less severe. Scientists have not yet confirmed reduced severity, however. As a result, health authorities are warning against complacency.
According to research from the Imperial College London, Omicron is more than 5 times as likely to cause re-infection than the Delta variant (Imperial College, Report 49). In addition, vaccination provides far less protection.
It is still too early to tell whether infected people are less likely to need hospitalization. However, even if fewer individuals become seriously ill, a small proportion of a huge number could still be enough patients to overwhelm healthcare facilities and staff. That is already happening in several states, where National Guard Units have been recruited to assist hospital personnel.
But we do have some good news for you. The Moderna booster seems to be protective against the early Omicron variants. In addition, the new antiviral pills for treating COVID-19 should offer some benefit as well.
Hong Kong researchers report that (HKUMed, Dec. 15, 2021):
“They found that the novel Omicron variant replicates faster than the original SARS-CoV-2 virus and Delta variant in the human bronchus. At 24 hours after infection, the Omicron variant replicated around 70 times higher than the Delta variant and the original SARS-CoV-2 virus. In contrast, the Omicron variant replicated less efficiently (more than 10 times lower) in the human lung tissue than the original SARS-CoV-2 virus, which may suggest lower severity of disease.”
That may seem reassuring, but the lead investigator cautions that:
“It is also noted that, by infecting many more people, a very infectious virus may cause more severe disease and death even though the virus itself may be less pathogenic. Therefore, taken together with our recent studies showing that the Omicron variant can partially escape immunity from vaccines and past infection, the overall threat from Omicron variant is likely to be very significant.”
COVID Stats Continue to Climb:
COVID statistics have reached a number of grim milestones. The case count in the US has topped 50 million. We are adding over 120,000 new cases daily.
More than 800,000 Americans have died from this infection. In the course of the last month, the pandemic has claimed roughly 1,200 lives each day.
Worldwide, over 5 million people have died. This fall, a poll found that one-third of Americans report having lost a family member or close friend due to the virus. Ponder that for a moment. Tens of millions of people have been impacted by SARS-2.
On the Ground Changes:
COVID statistics are mind numbing. Our brains cannot process abstract numbers. As a result, we tend to zone out when we read that as of Dec. 23, 2021, 812,609 people have died in the US because of COVID-19.
Here are some real-world consequences:
Just weeks after Hamilton reopened on Broadway, it canceled performances. Other shows were cancelled too, including The Lion King. Some colleges returned back to online teaching for at least part of the spring semester.
The NFL got through most of the football season without worrying about COVID. Players were vaccinated and stadiums were full. Now, though, 70 players have COVID-19. Cases of Omicron are starting to show up. The National Basketball Association (NBA) is also reporting outbreaks. So is the National Hockey League. And Duke had to cancel its final nonconference basketball game late in December, 2021. That’s because of COVID “issues” at its opponent, Cleveland State.
Meanwhile, in some places morgue trucks were back. The Cleveland Clinic Akron General Hospital had to start “using a refrigerated trailer for extra morgue capacity” (Akron Beacon Journal, Dec. 15, 2021).
Six months later, people are no longer panicked. On the other hand, many are not taking precautions any longer either. Since masks are not required on planes, most people aren’t wearing them.
What Does This Mean for Your Summer Holiday Celebration?
Experts suggest that gatherings should be tailored to the most vulnerable participant, whether that is a young baby, a cancer patient or an elderly grandparent. Anyone who has not been vaccinated is at risk, but vaccinations are not keeping people from catching this variant or even passing it on.
Getting together outside is safer than inside. Effective masks can also make a difference. Having everyone run a rapid test shortly before getting together inside can help you control the risk. Needless to say, anyone who tests positive should isolate themself from the rest of the party. Public health officials also urge regular, thorough hand-washing. Even with these procedures, we can’t control all the risks from this extremely transmissible virus.
What We Do Not Know:
There are so many unanswered questions that we do not know where to start.
- Are new Omicron variants “mild”? There’s no evidence so far that these variants are either more or less dangerous. Cases are up, but in most cases hospitalizations are comparable to earlier waves.
- Are people dying from the Omicron variants? Yes, roughly 300 a day nationwide.
- Will the booster protect you from catching Omicron? Not quite as well as anyone would like. “Just” being vaccinated with two shots does not guarantee protection against this variant. Read on for the latest update on the Moderna booster vs. the Omicron variants.
- Can someone who caught COVID-19 catch the Omicron variant? Will they be partially protected by the prior infection?
- How long will it take to create better vaccines against variants like Omicron or future variants?
- When will the FDA approve antiviral oral medications? Will the Pfizer drug, Paxlovid, work well against Omicron if taken early enough? Read more about Paxlovid at this link.
- Are there any other variants of concern out there?
Final Words:
We know that you are tired of COVID. We all are! Everyone wants to get back to normal, whatever that now is. We know that people want to hang out with family and friends and forget about the Omicron variant. Sadly, it won’t forget about us. To get the latest update on what is happening with COVID now, you may want to listen to our interview with Dr. Aaron Carroll of Indiana University.
We hope that you are taking prudent precautions to avoid this virus. Even asymptomatic or mild cases can lead to “long COVID.” And the consequences of PASC (post-acute sequelae SARS-CoV-2) can be devastating.
One Possible Bright Spot:
We hope you won’t leave this post you feeling overwhelmed and depressed. There is some good news. A new NIH-Duke collaborative study suggests that a Moderna booster shot is effective against the Omicron variant.
An NPR story reports that (Dec. 15, 2021):
“The antibodies that people make after they get the standard two inoculations of the Moderna mRNA vaccine are 50 times less effective against omicron than they are against the original form of the virus,” says David Montefiori, a virologist at Duke University who helped conduct the study.
“But there was good news too. An additional 17 people in the study had received a Moderna booster. And the antibodies in their blood were highly effective at blocking the omicron variant — essentially about as effective as they are at blocking the delta variant, Montefiori says.”
Here are the conclusions of this pre-publication study (medRxiv, Dec. 15, 2021):
“Together, these results suggest that neutralizing titers to Omicron are 49-84 times lower than neutralization titers to D614G after 2 doses of mRNA-1273, which could lead to an increased risk of symptomatic breakthrough infections. However, a booster dose of mRNA-1273 increases Omicron neutralization titers and may substantially reduce this risk.”
The mRNA-1273 vaccine is the Moderna shot.
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