As of Thursday, May 6, 2021, the general consensus is that about 580,000 people in the US have died from COVID-19. That’s the approximate number that the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center has listed today. The CDC is generally a bit behind. It lists 576,238 as the COVID kill count in the US.
Many people just do not believe those numbers, though. They insist that such stats are grossly inflated. They believe that unrelated deaths are included in the total COVID kill count. Many visitors to this website maintain that the actual cause of death on most autopsy reports in 2020/2021 are from causes other than the coronavirus.
Mortality Statistics in the US:
I am a huge fan of big data. For me, mortality stats are a way of looking at the big picture. Here are some numbers:
- In 2015, a total of 2,712,630 people died. Life expectancy was 78.8 years.
- In 2016, 2,744,248 people died and the life expectancy was 78.6 years. That was 31,618 more deaths than the year before.
- In 2017, 2,813, 503 people died and the life expectancy was 78.6 years. That was 69, 255 more deaths than the year before
- In 2018, 2,839,205 people died. That was “25,702 more deaths than in 2017.” The average life expectancy was 78.7 years, up 0.1 year from 2017.
- In 2019 there were 2,854,838 deaths and life expectancy was 78.8 years. That was 15,633 more deaths than the year before
Over the four years between 2015 and 2019 the average annual yearly increase in deaths was 35,552.
Something Big Happened in 2020!
In 2020 the provisional mortality data changed dramatically. The early numbers suggest that the death toll was 3,358,814. Instead of going up by an average of 30,000 to 40,000 annually, the death toll jumped by over 500,000 in one year.
During the first half of 2020 the CDC reports that life expectancy dropped one full year to 77.8 years. If you go back and look at a typical year it might go up or down 0.1 or 0.2. Losing a full year is a big deal in the actuarial world. Non-Hispanic Black people lost 2.7 years from their life expectancy and Hispanic people lost 1.9 years.
JAMA Interprets the COVID Kill Count:
I am no statistician. That’s why I rely upon smart people who do this for a living. A research letter published in JAMA (May 4, 2021) provides the expertise that I lack. These authors are biostatisticians. They know what they are doing!
They looked at “Excess Deaths from COVID-19 and Other Causes in the US, March 1, 2020 to January 2, 2021.”
Here are some of their observations:
“Between March 1, 2020, and January 2, 2021, the US experienced 2 801 439 deaths, 22.9% more than expected, representing 522 368 excess deaths.”
“The 22.9% increase in all-cause mortality reported here far exceeds annual increases observed in recent years (≤2.5%).”
“Excess deaths not attributed to COVID-19 could reflect either immediate or delayed mortality from undocumented COVID-19 infection, or non–COVID-19 deaths secondary to the pandemic, such as from delayed care or behavioral health crises. Death rates from several non–COVID-19 diseases (eg, heart disease, Alzheimer disease) increased during surges.”
The Bottom Line on the JAMA Research:
COVID-19 has resulted in significantly more deaths than in a normal year. Between March 2020 and January 2021, more than 2.8 million Americans died. That is 500,000 more than in a corresponding time frame in previous years. Usually the annual death rate does not increase greatly from year to year.
This 23 percent increase in deaths was not due exclusively to deaths from COVID-19. However, the pandemic may have made it more difficult for people with problems like heart disease or stroke to get timely care in overwhelmed hospitals.
A Really, Really Smart MD, PhD, Interprets the COVID Kill Count:
An accompanying editorial in JAMA notes that economic and social disruption due to the pandemic also take a toll.
The author writes:
“…it seems likely that COVID-19 will have contributed to nearly as many deaths in the US as the great influenza pandemic of 1918, and more than in any influenza outbreak in the US since then.”
This conclusion is not the idle ramblings of a pundit you might see on TV. Alan Garber, MD, PhD, is the Provost of Harvard University and the Mallinckrodt Professor of Health Care Policy, Professor of Economics, Harvard Kennedy School. Before that he was the Henry J. Kaiser Jr. Professor at Stanford University, where he was also a professor of medicine, and professor (by courtesy) of economics, health research and policy, and of economics in the Graduate School of Business.
Dr. Garber points out that “humans are flawed planners.” We focus on the near term. We eat an extra slice of pizza and then feel bad when we see we gained weight.
He notes that:
“Preparations for infectious disease outbreaks, like public health measures more generally, are stymied by the disincentives to commit time, effort, and money to plans for distant and uncertain risks. Public health experts have long warned that the US is not adequately prepared for massive influenza pandemics, even though such outbreaks have occurred regularly in the past.”
Dr. Garber’s conclusions:
“…despite the scientific, medical, and public health progress of recent decades, the loss of life attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic exceeds the mortality of major wars. No nation should squander this opportunity to do what it takes to prepare for the next one.”
Could the COVID Kill Count Be Even Higher?
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) issued a report on May 6, 2021, titled “Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19.” This organization suggests that since the beginning of this coronavirus pandemic more than 900,000 people have died in the US. That’s substantially more than the 675,000 Americans who died during the 1918 flu pandemic.
These are not fly-by-night guesstimators. They are scientists at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluations. They estimate that India has experienced 654,395 deaths rather than the reported COVID kill count of 221,181. They suggest that Mexico could have as many as 617,127 deaths instead of the reported COVID kill count of 217,694.
The COVID Kill Count Is Way Too High!
Whatever the actual number of deaths due to COVID-19, it is way too high. With 20/20 hindsight, it is clear that the world was not prepared for this or any other pandemic. We agree with Dr. Garber:
“…despite the scientific, medical, and public health progress of recent decades, the loss of life attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic exceeds the mortality of major wars. No nation should squander this opportunity to do what it takes to prepare for the next one.”
What Do You Think?
Please share your thoughts in the comment section below. Please be courteous, especially if you disagree. If you have a friend or relative who doesn’t believe COVID-19 is really that bad, please share this article by clicking on the icons above for email, Facebook or Twitter. Thank you for supporting our work.
