Times surely have changed. Today, drug companies are making tens of billions from COVID vaccines. They are likely to make billions more from COVID pills.
The Polio Vaccines:
When the Salk polio vaccine was announced in 1955, it was heralded as a great breakthrough for humanity. Dr. Jonas Salk did not patent his discovery.
In an interview with renowned journalist Edward R. Murrow he said:
“Who owns the patent? Well, the people, I would say. There is no patent. Could you patent the sun?”
Dr. Albert Sabin’s oral polio vaccine was licensed in 1961. He too chose not to patent this breakthrough. If Jonas Salk and Albert Sabin had patented their vaccines, it is estimated that they would have both been billionaires in today’s dollars.
It is estimated that Dr. Salk’s net worth at the time of his death was $3 million. That was quite respectable for a medical researcher in 1995, but certainly not a massive fortune. Dr. Sabin donated his vaccine strains to the WHO so they could be made accessible to countries all over the world at the lowest cost possible.
COVID Vaccine Sales:
Fast forward several decades. It is estimated that COVID vaccines could bring in $100 billion in 2021. According to the industry insider publication, Fierce Pharma (Nov. 3, 2021), Pfizer alone is projecting sales of $36 billion dollars from its Comirnaty COVID vaccine this year. It’s projecting another $29 billion in 2022. Mr. Albert Bourla, Chairman and CEO of Pfizer, is reported to have earned $21 million last year (New York Times, May 4, 2021). It will be interesting to learn what his 2021 income will be.
Reuters (Nov. 4, 2021) notes that:
“Moderna said it was now expecting 2021 sales of between $15 billion and $18 billion from $20 billion estimated previously.”
The lower amount is apparently due to “production challenges.”
Reuters adds:
“Deliveries were pegged between 700 million and 800 million doses for the year, down from its prior forecast of between 800 million to 1 billion.
“Still, Moderna said its sales could be in the range of $17 billion to $22 billion next year.”
That’s just two drug companies. If you include J&J, AstraZeneca, and other vaccine manufacturers, the profitability of the COVID vaccines is staggering.
What About COVID Pills?
Judging from the Pfizer sales strategy with its vaccine, the pricing for its COVID pills will likely bring in additional billions. Its oral medicine is called Paxlovid.
You have no doubt read the headlines that these COVID pills reduced the risk of hospitalization or death by 89%. Sounds phenomenal. But we have not yet seen the clinical trial data. Here is what we do know, based on the Pfizer report:
- 3 out of 389 patients who received the Pfizer’s COVID pills were hospitalized. No one getting the drug died.
- 27 out of 389 patients who received placebo were hospitalized or died.
These results are exciting. They could help bring the pandemic to a close. But how much will Pfizer charge for its COVID pills? So far, the company has kept that information close to its vest.
What About Merck’s COVID pills?
Merck actually got its antiviral medication to the FDA before Pfizer. Molnupiravir will be sold under the brand name Lagevrio in Britain. It has already been approved for sale there. We expect FDA will give its own Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) shortly. The drug reduces hospitalizations and deaths by about half.
According to the Merck press release (Oct. 1, 2021):
“7.3% of patients who received molnupiravir were either hospitalized or died through Day 29 following randomization (28/385), compared with 14.1% of placebo-treated patients (53/377). Through Day 29, no deaths were reported in patients who received molnupiravir, as compared to 8 deaths in patients who received placebo. At the recommendation of an independent Data Monitoring Committee and in consultation with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), recruitment into the study is being stopped early due to these positive results.”
What Will Merck’s COVID Pills Cost?
The Financial Times (Nov. 4, 2021) reports:
“The UK has purchased almost half a million courses of molnupiravir, while the US has ordered 1.7m courses of the drug at a total cost of $1.2bn, which works out to about $700 per course.
“Last week Merck, which co-developed the antiviral pill with Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, said it expected molnupiravir to generate up to $7bn in global revenue by the end of next year.”
Some Good News About the Cost of Merck’s COVID Pills:
We have been writing this newspaper column for 43 years. Anyone who is familiar with our work knows that we have often been critical of the pharmaceutical industry.
That’s in part because big brand name drug manufacturers frequently charge top dollar for their medicines. However, 34 years ago we praised Merck in this column:
The Ivermectin Breakthrough:
“It’s not often that a drug for animals becomes a major breakthrough for human health. But Merck’s new medication, ivermectin, has not only made life easier for our family pet, but it could save the eyesight of millions of people around the world.
“Rick, our Labrador retriever, arrived five years ago as a warm bundle of wiggles and soft ears. He’s 90 pounds of lovable mischief now, and because we live in a part of the country where the dog parasite, heartworm, is a constant danger, we have always had to give him medicine to protect him against this potentially fatal mosquito-borne disease.
“Until a few months ago, this was a daily struggle. … But that daily tussle is history now. The vet prescribed a new heartworm preventive, Heartgard (ivermectin), which is given only once a month. Rick almost seems to like it, making our life, and his, a lot easier.
“Probably the best thing about ivermectin, though, is not what it can do for dogs but its potential in relieving human suffering. It will help defeat a parasitic disease which affects up to 40 million people in tropical countries and is one of the leading causes of blindness in the developing world.
“We’ll never forget the guitarist we heard in Mexico. His music was hauntingly beautiful, the kind of extraordinary sound we would have expected in a fine concert hall, but he was dressed like a beggar. His little granddaughter, who was leading this blind musician down the street by the hand, was barefoot and ragged herself.
“We later learned this man was a victim of onchocerciasis, or river blindness. The parasite responsible for the disease is spread by the bite of a black fly which is found in parts of Latin America and is widespread in Africa. Entire villages know the despair of darkness, with the fear of blindness affecting even children learning to read.
“The parasite enters the body as a microscopic worm called a microfilaria and grows into a two-foot long adult lodged under the skin which produces intense itching. The female, which may live as long as 11 years, produces millions of tiny young which migrate through the body, causing scarring and damaging the eye.
“Ivermectin kills the parasite before it harms the eye. By taking Mectizan, people can save their sight and prevent transmission. A single dose is good for six months or more, so one or two pills a year should be enough.
“Unfortunately, many of the people affected by river blindness can’t get to doctors or afford medicine. In an unprecedented move, Merck & Co., which manufactures Mectizan, is making it available free of cost.
“This generous giveaway will make the drug available through public health channels so that river blindness can be controlled even in the poorest areas.”
Distribution of ivermectin has nearly eradicated onchocerciasis in Latin America. The situation in sub-Saharan Africa is also much better.
The Cost of COVID Pills Around the World:
Why do we revisit this old ivermectin story now? Merck has drawn upon its history and is once again planning to make sure poor countries can get access to a crucial medicine at an affordable price.
Molnupiravir could be a game changer against COVID because it cuts the rate of hospitalization and death in half. In poor countries that cannot afford vaccines, that could make a big difference in controlling the spread of COVID-19. It is much easier to distribute than a shot.
Affordable COVID Pills:
Merck has announced that it will be licensing the drug without royalties to manufacturers in 105 low-income countries. This should make a potentially life-saving medication far more available around the world.
The Merck decision (Nov. 4, 2021):
“As part of its commitment to widespread global access, Merck previously announced that it has entered into a licensing agreement with the Medicines Patent Pool to increase broad access for molnupiravir in low- and middle-income countries. Additionally, Merck previously announced that the company has entered into non-exclusive voluntary licensing agreements for molnupiravir with established Indian generic manufacturers to accelerate availability of molnupiravir in more than 100 low- and middle-income countries following approvals or emergency authorization by local regulatory agencies.”
We hope other drug companies will follow Merck’s good-Samaritan example with their own critical medicines. It would be great if Pfizer, for example, does the same thing with its COVID pills. Sadly, though, we anticipate that Americans will pay top dollar for both kinds of COVID pills. We continue to spend more on medicines than any other country in the world.
What Do You Think?
We would like to get your feedback on the cost of COVID pills. You can share your thoughts in the comment section below. You may also find our article about the price of medicine worth reading:
Will High Drug Prices Soon Destroy Healthcare?
Are drug companies killing the golden goose? High drug prices are breaking the bank. Aduhelm for Alzheimer’s disease is just the last example.
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