A new study suggests that the number of people who have contracted COVID-19 could be much higher than the official case counts. As of November 2022, the worldwide estimate is well over 600 million “all-time cases” of the coronavirus. In the US, we are closing in on 100 million people who have caught COVID. Those numbers are startling, but they are likely a substantial underestimate. The number of people who have caught COVID could be much higher. Would you even know if you had caught the virus?
How Many People Have Actually Caught COVID?
A study published in PLOS Medicine (November 10, 2022) looked at antibodies in blood, a technique known as serosurveillance. Asymptomatic infections and scarcity of COVID-19 tests mean that case reports are incomplete.
Blood tests conducted internationally between January 2020 and May 2022 included more than 5 million people. The rate of seropositivity climbed quite markedly during that time.
The scientists conclude that nearly two-thirds of the world’s population now have antibodies to COVID, demonstrating past infection or, in some cases, vaccination. This number far outstrips the current estimates of global cases. The implications for long COVID are worrisome.
Not The First Time the Experts Have Underestimated:
A year and a half ago, researchers at the University of Texas Southwestern believed that the number of people who had caught COVID was up to three times higher than the official estimate (PLOS ONE, Feb. 8, 2021). Why are these estimates important?
The authors introduced their research this way:
“Since the beginning of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, daily counts of confirmed cases and deaths have been publicly reported in real-time to control the virus spread. However, substantial undocumented infections have obscured the true size of the currently infected population, which is arguably the most critical number for public health policy decisions. We developed a machine learning framework to estimate time courses of actual new COVID-19 cases and current infections in all 50 U.S. states and the 50 most infected countries from reported test results and deaths.”
Critical decisions about testing and treating the coronavirus are based on accurate numbers. Public health authorities need to know how many people actually caught COVID and how many people are infectious at any given time.
The Number Crunchers:
To calculate the number of people who have caught COVID, the algorithm counts the number of deaths and estimates based on an infection fatality rate of 0.66%. To check the accuracy of the algorithm, the researchers used blood tests that show how many individuals in an area have been exposed to the coronavirus.
The calculations track closely to the percentage of people with positive antibodies. The algorithm estimates higher infection rates for other countries as well. In some cases, the number of actual cases is more than five times higher than the official count.
Why Are Accurate Numbers Important?
Some people maintain that it doesn’t matter how many individuals have caught COVID. They insist that the virus is not that big a deal and that it’s just like the flu. The algorithm relies largely on reported deaths, because those numbers are based on official death certificates.
We are now facing the worst influenza season we have seen in years. Hospitals have to plan for resource allocation and staffing needs weeks in advance. And health systems are now combatting long COVID cases. Estimates range from 10 to 30 percent of the people who catch the coronavirus will go on to develop symptoms of post COVID syndrome. They will ultimately require care.
The COVID Deniers Are Still Going Strong:
Although some visitors to this website suggest that many doctors are intentionally misrepresenting cause of death, we think that is rare. Filling out a death certificate is an awesome responsibility, and most doctors take it very seriously.
According to an article in StatPearls (April 30, 2020):
“The process of medical death certification is a challenging and daunting task for most healthcare practitioners and physicians who are tasked with this responsibility. In most instances, in the United States, when a death certificate must be completed, it is the responsibility of the physician to fill it out.
“It is considered a class 1 felony to willfully and knowingly falsify information on the death certificate.”
We doubt that very many physicians would take such a risk.
Cause of Death?
Most people in the US believe COVID is over. They have resumed all their normal activities as if there never was a pandemic. Despite this belief and despite all our modern interventions, hundreds of people are dying every day from SARS-CoV-2. These cases no longer make the news. They haven’t changed dramatically in months. Lives get snuffed out as if they don’t matter…except to the families that loved them.
Many people who catch COVID die from complications of the disease. Some die from pneumonia. Others die from heart problems or blood clots that lead to strokes. What is the cause of death in such situations?
Here is what the article cited above suggests:
“Hip fracture from falls, especially in elderly, frail patients, is very common. The presence of hip fracture can predispose patients to sepsis and a thromboembolic event that can ultimately cause death. If as a sequela of a hip fracture from a fall, a patient later develops pulmonary embolism from prolonged immobilization, the manner of death in this instance will be an accident.”
In the case described above, the doctor could write that cause of death was pulmonary embolism (blood clot in the lungs). But the underlying trigger was a hip fracture. Ditto for COVID-19. The ultimate cause of death might be stroke, heart attack or pneumonia, but the initiating event was COVID-19.
Still confused? Let me put it to you this way. If someone is shot in the chest, bleeds out and ultimately suffers cardiac arrest, what is the cause of death? You could try to say cardiac arrest. The underlying reason the person died, however, is clearly a gunshot.
Final Words:
Whatever the exact number, far too many people have caught COVID. Cases in the US have already exceeded the number of cases during the 1918 Spanish flu. Unfortunately, so have deaths.
The authors of the University of Texas Southwestern study summarize their findings:
“In conclusion, this study demonstrates that severe under-ascertainment has obscured the true severity of widespread COVID-19 all over the world. In the majority of the 50 countries, actual cumulative cases were estimated to be 5–20 times greater than the confirmed cases. Given that the confirmed cases only capture the tip of the iceberg in the middle of the pandemic, the estimated sizes of current infections in this study provide crucial information to determine the regional severity of COVID-19 that can be misguided by the confirmed cases.”
Why should you care about COVID any more? The biggest concern is now long COVID! How would you even know if you had caught COVID? Many people remain asymptomatic or have mild symptoms…initially. But weeks or months later they develop fatigue, headaches, brain fog, sleeping difficulties and breathing problems. They may not attribute such symptoms to COVID.
Here is a link to an article that could help you determine if you are experiencing long COVID, even if you think you avoided catching this virus.
