There is tremendous confusion surrounding COVID-19. We still hear from many people who say it’s no big deal because most people recover. Tell that to the families of the 570,000 people who have died in the US. Worldwide, more than 3 million have died from this virus. Over 140 million have been infected and many are suffering long-term consequences (Post-COVID Syndrome or PCS). How did some countries beat COVID?
The Losers:
The US is the biggest loser. We have lost more people to COVID than any other nation on the planet. Brazil is also a loser, coming in second with more than 414,000 deaths due to COVID-19. India is in terrible trouble, too, as we explain below. Mexico is number 4 on this loser list (after India) with 218,007 deaths.
India—A Desperate Situation:
In case you haven’t been paying attention lately, India is also in this horrible race to the bottom. Hospital systems are in chaos and have stopped admitting new patients.
NPR reported on April 22, 2021 that:
“Ghastly scenes are playing out at hospitals and clinics across India as the country’s health system collapses under a sudden spike in coronavirus cases. On Thursday, India confirmed nearly 315,000 new infections over the preceding 24 hours – the highest single-day tally for any country on any day since the pandemic began.”
“India’s daily tally announced Thursday exceeded the previous record of 313,310 cases set by the United States on Jan. 8, according to the CDC. But with testing kits also in short supply across India, that number may represent a fraction of the infections nationwide.”
Is a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 responsible for the rapid spread of this deadly infection in India? One variant in particular is under scrutiny. It is labeled B.1.617 and has been dubbed the “double mutant.” In truth, though, this variant has 13 mutations. In particular, the L452R and the E484Q mutations have scientists concerned. That’s because there is fear the B.1.617 variant spreading in India may be both more transmissible and more virulent.
The Winners:
Taiwan Beat COVID:
There are winners in the COVID race. We have tried to ignore them because they make us look bad. Taiwan has an especially enviable record. Remember, this country is adjacent to China, the epicenter for COVID-19. If any population was vulnerable, the Taiwanese were it.
What can we learn from Taiwan about controlling COVID-19? This island nation of 24 million people has had extraordinary success fending off the pandemic.
According to an editorial in JAMA Internal Medicine (April 6, 2021), Taiwan had experienced a total of 10 deaths as of March 2021. The total number of cases was just over 1,000. The country beat COVID! How did they accomplish such impressive results?
The author notes that:
“People live without fear of SARS-CoV-2.”
He goes on to state:
“Even as the pace of vaccinations accelerates, there was still a 7-day moving average of more than 60000 new COVID-19 cases and 1000 deaths a day in the US in late March 2021, daily totals that were comparable with those during the summer 2020 peak. What lessons does Taiwan’s initial success have for containing the epidemic? The answer is the need for a combination of case-based interventions (including testing, contact tracing, and quarantine) and population-based interventions (including physical distancing and facial masking with wide adherence) for control to be successful.”
Dr. Robert Steinbrook is an editor of JAMA Internal Medicine. He was referring to a study in his journal. His article was titled: “Lessons from the Success of COVID-19 Control in Taiwan.”
The authors of the research published their study in the same issue of JAMA Internal Medicine (April 6, 2021).
It was a modeling study that shows that combining two public health strategies provided excellent rapid reduction in viral transmission. The population-based strategies included wearing face masks, observing physical distance and avoiding crowds and indoor spaces.
In addition, public health authorities tested and isolated people who were infected through a sensitive surveillance system. They also had robust contact tracing and required 14-day quarantines of close contacts. The population followed these recommendations conscientiously.
The authors concluded:
“Although vaccinations programs are ramping up toward widespread availability and coverage, the full benefits will only be realized over time. The experience in Taiwan suggests that mitigating the severity of the pandemic requires the collaborative effort of public health professionals and the general public.”
Australia and New Zealand Are Also Big Winners:
Neither Australia nor New Zealand have vaccinated themselves out of the pandemic. Only 4.5% of the population of New Zealand has received the first dose of a vaccine. Australia has not done much better. Some have called the program a “farce.” So how is it that both Australia and New Zealand managed to beat COVID?
The Guardian (April 21, 2021) reports:
“They were held up as Covid success stories, two countries at the bottom of the world that kept outbreaks under control and deaths low as the pandemic swept the rest of the globe.
“Daily life in cities including Sydney and Auckland now feels largely back to pre-pandemic normal – restaurants are full, theatres are open, masks are scarce and offices are busy. A degree of international travel is also a reality thanks to the new “trans-Tasman travel bubble” – a two-way quarantine-free corridor between the neighbours.”
How did these two countries beat COVID? They pretty much followed the Taiwan model.
Here is what the architect of New Zealand’s COVID conquest told the New York Times (Oct. 7, 2020):
“Professor Baker helped devise the country’s elimination strategy. He said that despite early fears that severe lockdowns would irreparably damage the economy, New Zealand’s approach had proved that the best economic response was a strong public health response, including a blitz of testing, contact tracing and quarantining.
“Much of the rest of the Western world, Professor Baker added, has ‘adopted the approach of complacent exceptionalism — that they wouldn’t get the virus, or it wouldn’t be as severe as they thought, and the pandemic has proved them wrong.’”
There are other examples of countries that beat COVID:
“New Zealand is not alone in successfully pursuing an elimination strategy, with Taiwan among those following the model. And other places, including Hong Kong and Vietnam, have stamped out second or third waves. But experts said this approach would not necessarily work everywhere.”
Clearly, the US, Brazil, Mexico and India have not been successful in fighting back COVID. The countries that beat COVID had strong public health programs and populations that were willing to comply.
Americans like to think of themselves as rugged individualists. So do Aussies. The difference is that one country beat COVID and the other didn’t.
Final Words:
I have been criticized by several readers. Some were pretty crude in dismissing the data. Others pointed out, justifiably, that the numbers I cited at the top of the post were not “fair.” Stating that “570,000 people have died in the US” does not take into account population.
To correct that, I went digging for cases and deaths per million people in various countries. This evens the playing field. Here is what I found:
Total COVID cases per million population:
US: 96,462
France: 80,262
UK: 65,018
Israel: 96,794
Sweden: 92,291
Australia: 1,162
New Zealand: 539
Taiwan: 45
Vietnam: 29
Deaths per million population:
UK: 1,879
US: 1,723
France: 1,501
Hungary: 2,691
Brazil: 1,804
Australia: 35
New Zealand: 5
Taiwan: 0.46
Vietnam: 0.36
This playing field is level. You can instantly see that Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan and Vietnam are in a completely different ball park from the US, Europe and Brazil. The bottom line: some countries have managed the pandemic really well and others have not. The numbers speak for themselves.
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