The coronavirus trends show that the vaccines are working. In most places with high vaccination rates, COVID cases are falling at an impressive rate. In New York City, for example, there were no COVID deaths over Memorial Day and the rate of positive tests was below 1 percent.
COVID Cases Are Falling!
If you haven’t looked at the curves lately, you will be pleased to learn that over the last two weeks the numbers are looking great! According to the New York Times, the number of COVID cases in the US are down 46% over the last two weeks. That’s data from June 3, 2021.
Deaths are down 35% over the last 14 days and hospitalizations are down 22%. No matter how you slice it, those are really great stats.
Let’s look at the last seven days from the Washington Post. New daily cases were down by about 30% and deaths were down by 8%. Not quite as good as the two-week data, but still moving in the right direction. Hospitalizations “fell 10.8%.”
The Big Picture!
The most recent daily COVID case count in the US is around 16,000. Contrast that with the peak on January 8, 2021, when the US hit over 300,000 daily COVID cases. That was “only” five months ago. We had hit the worst of the pandemic in the US. We have come a long way since January.
How Are Other Countries Doing?
It’s a mixed bag. According to the Johns Hopkins Resource Center, India has been in terrible trouble, but now COVID cases are falling. Argentina, Colombia, Malaysia, Thailand, France, Spain and the United Kingdom are trending up again.
What About States in the US?
Like NYC, Maine also reported no new deaths over the holiday weekend. Iowa is also reporting no additional deaths and the lowest level of hospitalizations in more than a year. Illinois is also seeing progress. Two-third of the adults in the state have gotten at least one shot. Florida and Oregon are also reporting improvement.
Data from the Washington Post shows these trends over the last week:
Rhode Island is down 67%
Vermont is down 64%
Minnesota is down 56%
Massachusetts is down 55%
Michigan is down 50%
Wisconsin is down 48%
Maryland is down 45%
Ohio is down 45%
Pennsylvania is down 43%
New York is down 41%
The only states that are seeing COVID cases rising are Hawaii and Arizona. The District of Columbia is also up about 8%.
The Bottom Line from The People’s Pharmacy:
COVID cases are falling in most of the US. According to the Mayo Clinic U.S. COVID-19 vaccine tracker, here are some states that have done really well when it comes to at least one shot:
Vermont: 71%
Massachusetts 67%
Maine: 63%
New Hampshire: 61%
Rhode Island: 61%
New Jersey: 61%
Pennsylvania: 59%
Maryland: 58%
New York: 56%
We suspect that there are two factors working synergistically that explain why COVID cases are falling. They are vaccination and natural immunity.
A great many people have been infected with the coronavirus in the US. At last count, over 33 million people have caught SARS-CoV-2. And that is almost assuredly an undercount.
If many states have achieved more than a 60% vaccination rate and you add another 10% with natural immunity, you get at least 70% of the population with protection against COVID-19. The closer we get to 80%, the harder it will be for this virus to spread. When that happens, it will gradually fade away, unless a new variant shows up that is resistant to vaccination or natural immunity. Let’s hope that does not happen!
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